- Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean
- Published 3 April 2025
AI 2027 report
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Topics covered
- AI Agents (Unimpressive and error-prone at first, but starting to replace some employee tasks and companies inserting into workflows regardless. And getting better)
- Autonomous Coding
- AI Research (AIs creating better AIs)
After being trained to predict internet text, the model is trained to produce text in response to instructions. This bakes in a basic personality and “drives.” For example, an agent that understands a task clearly is more likely to complete it successfully; over the course of training the model “learns” a “drive” to get a clear understanding of its tasks. Other drives in this category might be effectiveness, knowledge, and self-presentation (i.e. the tendency to frame its results in the best possible light).
“Unlike ordinary software, our models are massive neural networks. Their behaviors are learned from a broad range of data, not programmed explicitly. Though not a perfect analogy, the process is more similar to training a dog than to ordinary programming.” —OpenAI
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