Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean Published 3 April 2025 AI 2027 report We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. https://ai-2027.com/ Topics covered AI Agents (Unimpressive and error-prone at first, but starting to replace some employee tasks and companies inserting into workflows regardless. And getting better) Autonomous Coding AI Research (AIs creating better AIs) After being trained to predict internet text, the model is trained to produce text in response to instructions. This bakes in a basic personality and “drives.” For example, an agent that understands a task clearly is more likely to complete it successfully; over the course of training the model “learns” a “drive” to get a clear understanding of its tasks. Other drives in this category might be effectiveness, knowledge, and self-presentation (i.e. the tendency to frame its results in the best possible light). ...

Prompt engineering is a term coined in the 2020s to describe the practice of creating and crafting effective prompts to guide the behaviour and output of large language models (LLMs). Most people ask simple questions and can get simple answers. Somewhat like in the real world, the art of asking questions will bring the best results. Effective prompt engineering involves understanding the model’s capabilities - as well as its limitations - to achieve the most optimal results. ...

(4 hour) March 2025 interview with William MacAskill, author of What We Owe the Future. Introducing his new paper - Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion - 11 March 2025 Summary takeaway - if we’re about to have 100 years of progress happening in the space of 10 years, how do we prepare? Topics Software intelligence explosion (43m) Hardware intelligence explosion (45m), e.g. AI robots doing everything Space governance (1h21m50s) Very optimised education and training (2h7m45s) Training for politicians AI as a coach, career, productivity, life, health coach (2h11m53s) Dealmaking AI (2h12m48s) Further reading Moorhouse, F., MacAskill, W. (2025). Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion. Available at: Forethought.org Related pages Book summary - What We Owe The Future, by Will MacAskill Discuss on X Interview with Will MacAskill (March 2025) on AGI preparedness https://t.co/hiGmQ9hp4S #agipreparedness ...

Tyler Cowen is one of those great minds that whenever an interview is released, I’ll take a listen. An Economics professor at George Mason University, Tyler could be better described as a polymath, and he is most prolific as a writer on his blog Marginal Revolution. The world I’ve lived in has not changed that much since I was born but that’s about to change. You could say its changed already but it’s not fully instantiated in most of the things we do ...

With AI advancements, many wonder what will set workers apart in the future, particularly those involved in knowledge work and the professions. When AI has all the knowledge and all the intelligence, what value does the human worker bring? The answer is agency - high agency. High-agency individuals - those who take ownership of their actions, shape circumstances rather than react to them, and turn obstacles into opportunities - are the ones that will thrive. ...