Critical Thinking

Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that undermine the validity of an argument. Recognising logical fallacies is essential for developing critical thinking, empowering you to objectively evaluate arguments and avoid being misled. A July 2024 article in the BBC’s Future series sets out 7 logical fallacies you can train yourself to spot whenever you hear an argument being made. When people are trying to persuade you, they sometimes reach for underhand tricks like the ‘appeal to ignorance’ or ‘whataboutism’ to seem more convincing. BBC Future ...

Critical thinking is an essential skill to develop in a digital risk career. Without critical thinking, you risk poor decisions that will expose your organisation to unnecessary risk. It is common to avoid critical thinking in every day life - it would be exhausting to think critically 24/7, instead we use techniques such as heuristics, as well as developing trust, to essentially save your brain’s bandwidth and processing needs. But in important situations which require well thought through decisions, heuristics and its more dangerous friend the cognitive bias, may lead to poor reasoning and weak analytical rigour. ...

“Range,” a 2019 book by David Epstein subtitled “How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World,” argues that in a complex and unpredictable world, generalists with a broad set of experience and skills will often outperform deep and narrow specialists. These individuals who possess “range,” excel at connecting disparate ideas and adapting to new situations. This is especially relevant to develop a career in risk management, as it requires the ability to draw upon diverse knowledge and skills, responding to change, while fostering creativity in problem-solving and innovative thinking. Quotes And he refused to specialize in anything, preferring to keep an eye on the overall estate rather than any of its parts … And Nikolay’s management produced the most brilliant results. ...

Pre-mortem technique uses prospective hindsight to identify potential failures before they occur. By putting yourself into the place and time where a project has already failed, team members can then work backwards to determine what might lead to that failure and take proactive steps to mitigate those risks. Further reading Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events - Journal of Behavioural Decision Making Pre-mortem: how to anticipate failure with prospective hindsight - Ness Labs Pre-mortem - Wikipedia The Power of Prospective Hindsight - Pennyworth Hindsight – it’s not just for past events - Oliver Burkeman/Guardian

Heuristics are mental shortcuts, or rules of thumb, that can help you make decisions quickly and efficiently. Instead of analysing every situation from first principles, heuristics allow you to simplify complex problems by looking for patterns. They can be especially useful in situations with incomplete information, or when time is limited, however using them comes with its own risk. Why Are Heuristics Useful in Risk Management? In risk management you are by definition dealing with uncertainty, and often with limited data and time to analyse. Heuristics can help by: ...