AI 2027 report (Long Read)
Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean Published 3 April 2025 AI 2027 report We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. https://ai-2027.com/ Topics covered AI Agents (Unimpressive and error-prone at first, but starting to replace some employee tasks and companies inserting into workflows regardless. And getting better) Autonomous Coding AI Research (AIs creating better AIs) After being trained to predict internet text, the model is trained to produce text in response to instructions. This bakes in a basic personality and “drives.” For example, an agent that understands a task clearly is more likely to complete it successfully; over the course of training the model “learns” a “drive” to get a clear understanding of its tasks. Other drives in this category might be effectiveness, knowledge, and self-presentation (i.e. the tendency to frame its results in the best possible light). ...